Childcare Sufficiency Assessment
Identification of Key Demographic and Socio-Economic Issues
The following section presents an analysis, as of spring 2022, which focuses on how demographic and socio-economic factors may affect forthcoming and localised demand for childcare places.
The data sets and relevant metrics are aligned to Pembrokeshire including:
- Existing 0 – 4 years populations and projections/forecasts
- Birth rates across the county since 2017 in order to help inform forthcoming childcare allocation
- Incidence of working families (that are eligible to take-up the 30 hours childcare offer) and average household incomes
- Incidence of children and young people from low-income households
- Incidence of children with ALN.
The objective of the following analysis is to consider the extent to which childcare planners within Pembrokeshire may need to continue to prioritise their abilities to help instigate or stimulate further childcare places within specific and targeted geographical localities. A variety of areas have been examined, such as migration trends, the number of children resident in Pembrokeshire according to age group and the number of children with ALN.
Projected population for Pembrokeshire County
Table 1 – Pembrokeshire projected population (LA wide) projections for the next five years and for previous three years (Source: Stats Wales (opens in a new tab))
- 2018 125,055
- 2019 125,350
- 2020 125,650
- 2021 125,989
- 2022 126,301
- 2023 126,580
- 2024 126,838
- 2025 127,073
- 2026 127,297
- 2027 127,486
As illustrated in Table 1, the projected population for Pembrokeshire is projected to increase moderately across the county, by approximately 2,400 from 2018 to 2027.
Map of Pembrokeshire County Council Upper Super Output Areas (USOAs)
Appendix, Table 1 shows electoral wards aligned to USOA.
Children accessing childcare in Pembrokeshire
As illustrated in Chart 1 (see Appendix, Table 2) Pembrokeshire U002 had the highest number of children accessing childcare at 904 children, while Pembrokeshire U001 had the least number of children accessing childcare services. There were 1,009 children aged 3-4 accessing childcare in Pembrokeshire, making this the largest age group of children between 0-4 who were accessing childcare in the LA. This is followed by 763 2-year-olds and 374 0–1-year-olds.
Existing and forecast population of children and young people resident in Pembrokeshire
Chart 2 - Approximate number of children aged 0 – 4 years resident in Pembrokeshire as of mid-2020 (source: ONS September 2021 (opens in a new tab))
As illustrated by Chart 2 (also see Appendix, Table 3), 3–4-year-olds made up the greatest number of 0-4 year olds in Pembrokeshire at 2,457, followed by 0-1 year olds at 2,103 and 2 year olds at 1,159. The higher number of 3–4-year-olds recorded as resident in Pembrokeshire help to explain the results in Table 1, which record the highest level of demand for childcare from children aged 3-4 in the 0-4 group.
Chart 2 shows that Pembrokeshire U001 is the smallest region, with 1,328 children aged 0-4 resident in the area. Pembrokeshire U002 is the largest region, with 2,402 children 0-4.
Chart 3 - Approximate number of children and young people aged 5 – 14 years resident in Pembrokeshire as of mid-2020 (source: ONS September 2021 (opens in a new tab))[1]
As illustrated by Chart 3 (see Appendix, Table 4), 8–11-year-olds make up the greatest number of 5-14 year olds in Pembrokeshire at 5,907, followed by 12-14 year olds at 4,416 and 5-7 year olds at 3,920. Chart 3 also shows that Pembrokeshire U001 is the smallest region, with 3,296 children aged 5-14 resident in the area. Pembrokeshire U002 is the largest region, with 5,906 children 5-14.
Table 2 - Numbers of children forecast to be resident in Pembrokeshireby 2026 (source: StatsWales 2018-based estimates (opens in a new tab)
0-1 years
- Resident population 2020: 2215
- Resident population 2023: 2165
- Number change 2020-23: -50
- Resident population 2026: 2122
- Number change 2020-26: -93
2 years
- Resident population 2020: 1141
- Resident population 2023: 1125
- Number change 2020-23: -16
- Resident population 2026: 1095
- Number change 2020-26: -46
3-4 years
- Resident population 2020: 2462
- Resident population 2023: 2316
- Number change 2020-23: -146
- Resident population 2026: 2269
- Number change 2020-26: 193
5-7 years
- Resident population 2020: 3913
- Resident population 2023: 3757
- Number change 2020-23: -156
- Resident population 2026: 3586
- Number change 2020-26: -327
8-11 years
- Resident population 2020: 5887
- Resident population 2023: 5583
- Number change 2020-23: -304
- Resident population 2026: 5309
- Number change 2020-26: -578
12-18 years
- Resident population 2020: 9574
- Resident population 2023: 10,317
- Number change 2020-23: +743
- Resident population 2026: 10,451
- Number change 2020-26: +877
Total 0-18
- Resident population 2020: 25,192
- Resident population 2023: 25,263
- Number change 2020-23: +71
- Resident population 2026: 24,832
- Number change 2020-26: -360
Overall, every age group except for 12–18-year-olds is expected to fall in Pembrokeshire between 2020-2026. 12–18-year-olds are expected to continue increasing and reaching an additional 877 children by 2026. By contrast, there are forecast to be 578 fewer 8–11-year-olds residing in Pembrokeshire between 2020-2026, and overall, a decrease of 360 children aged 0-18 residing in the county during this same period. These figures would therefore suggest that demand for Early Years childcare will fall in the coming years in Pembrokeshire.
Birth rates in the Pembrokeshire area
Table 3 presents the number of live births that were recorded in Pembrokeshire between 2015 and 2019.
The rate of live births increased between 2018-19 but then took a noticeable fall in 2020, representing a decrease of 27 live births between 2019-20. This could suggest that COVID-19 has impacted the rate of live births by causing them to reduce, however the full explanation for this sudden fall in live births may only become clear in the coming years.
According to the ONS, the number of births in the year to mid-2020 across the UK has fallen to its lowest level since 2003, suggesting that Pembrokeshire is not alone in seeing a fall in its live birth rate. Reductions in fertility rates across the UK have been noted as a reason for this occurrence on a national level, while the ONS also states that the reduction in the number of births cannot be attributed to COVID-19. This is because all the births recorded up to mid-2020 at least were from conceptions that occurred before the pandemic in March 2020.
Table 4 - Birth rates in Pembrokeshire between 2018-2020 (Source: ONS (opens in a new tab) and Nomis (opens in a new tab) via ONS 2021)
- 2018 Live births: 1,040
- 2019 Live births: 1,052
- 2020 Live births: 1,025
Migration
Table 4 demonstrates the apparent trend for the Pembrokeshire area in terms of international migration inflows and outflows and internal (within the UK) migration inflows and outflow. Inflow international migration levels have remained fairly stable but have fallen from 289 in 2013-14 to its most recently recorded level of 248. By contrast, the outflow rate has increased from 159 in 2013-14 to 213 in 2018-19 before decreasing to 121 in 2019-20. Inflow and outflow levels of international migration in Pembrokeshire have therefore both fallen overall between 2013-20.
The figures for internal migration show increases in both the inflow and outflow levels as of 2018-19. However, the outflow level has fallen from 3,629 in 2013-14 to 2,859 in 2019-20. By contrast, the inflow level has increased overall between 2013-20 from 4,092 to 4,174 people but has fallen from the previous recorded year of 4,479.
Table 4 – Pembrokeshire (a) international migration and (b) internal migration inflows and outflows trends observed since 2013 – 2014 up to 2018 – 2019 (source: ONS (opens in a new tab) 2020) (source: Migration Observatory (opens in a new tab)) (source: ONS (opens in a new tab) mid 2020)
International Migration
Pembrokeshire (inflows)
- 2013-14: 289
- 2014-15: 315
- 2015-16: 297
- 2016-2017: 289
- 2017-18: 333
- 2018-19: 281
- 2019-20: 248
Pembrokeshire (outflows)
- 2013-14: 159
- 2014-15: 216
- 2015-16:122
- 2016-2017: 200
- 2017-18: 189
- 2018-19: 213
- 2019-20: 121
Net migration churn
- 2013-14: 130
- 2014-15: 99
- 2015-16: 175
- 2016-2017: 89
- 2017-18: 144
- 2018-19: 68
- 2019-20: 127
Internal Migration
Pembrokeshire (inflows)
- 2013-14: 4092
- 2014-15: 3717
- 2015-16:4410
- 2016-2017:4424
- 2017-18: 4410
- 2018-19: 4479
- 2019-20: 4174
Pembrokeshire (outflows)
- 2013-14: 3629
- 2014-15: 3675
- 2015-16: 3680
- 2016-2017: 3669
- 2017-18: 3794
- 2018-19: 3651
- 2019-20: 2859
Net migration churn
- 2013-14: 463
- 2014-15: 42
- 2015-16: 730
- 2016-2017: 755
- 2017-18: 616
- 2018-19: 1128
- 2019-20: 1315
The effects of COVID-19 and Brexit may lead to a drop in the number of people coming to Wales and possibly lead to more people leaving rather than entering, resulting in a negative net-migration. The possible reasons for this are numerous. Firstly, the Oxford Migration Observatory contends that as the UK’s new Points Based Immigration System places greater restrictions on the number of lower-skilled EU workers that are allowed to enter the UK, this will likely contribute to a drop in migration which could affects LAs in Wales such as Pembrokeshire.
Secondly, the ONS notes that the rate of internal migration fell across the UK in the period to mid-2020, which represented a fall of 11.5% from 2019. The reason suggested for this was that the national lockdown introduced in March 2020 resulted in fewer people being able to move home, which may have partly contributed to the falls seen in both inflow and outflow migration levels in Pembrokeshire in 2020. The full impact of both factors is still as yet unknown, however, both should be taken into consideration when estimating the number of childcare places needed in Pembrokeshire.
The net migration churn, referenced in both the International Migration and Internal Migration sections of Table 5, refers to the rate of inflows minus the number of outflows.
Ethnicity
Table 15 – Ethnic backgrounds of pupils aged 5 or over in Pembrokeshire (Source: StatsWales, 2020/21b(opens in a new tab)) 14665
- White British: 13,660
- Traveller: 35
- Gypsy/Gypsy Roma (to 2017): not listed
- Gypsy (from 2018): 115
- Roma (from 2018): not listed
- Any other white background: 220
- White and Black Caribbean: 50
- White and Black African: 40
- White and Asian: 95
- Any other mixed background: 100
- Indian: 15
- Pakistani: 15
- Bangladeshi: 25
- Any other Asian background: 40
- Caribbean: not listed
- African: 10
- Any other black background: not listed
- Chinese or Chinese British: 20
- Any other ethnic background: 50
- Unknown or not stated: 175
As illustrated by the above, Pembrokeshire has a high proportion of pupils aged 5 and above identifying as white British at just over 93%. Comparatively, only 3% of pupils identify as being from a non-white background.
Employment
Chart 4 – Incidence of employment and unemployment in Pembrokeshire (NOMIS (opens in a new tab) 2020 using ONS 2011 data)
Chart 4 (see Appendix, Table 5) shows the frequency of adults who are ‘economically active’ which implies they are in employment. Pembrokeshire U001 had the highest percentage of its population listed as employed or ‘economically active’ at 76.57%, with Pembrokeshire U003 the lowest at 73.91%. Based on this data, we would expect to see a higher proportion of working parents in Pembrokeshire U001 and U002, and fewer working parents in Pembrokeshire U003.
Table 5 - Incidence of children living in all out-of-work benefit claimant households at May 2017 (Source: Department for Work and Pensions (opens in a new tab) 2019)
Number of children living in all out-of-work benefit claimant households at May 2017
Age 0-4 years
- Pembrokeshire U001: 230
- Pembrokeshire U002: 580
- Pembrokeshire U003: 490
- Total: 1,300
Age 5-10 years
- Pembrokeshire U001: 180
- Pembrokeshire U002:615
- Pembrokeshire U003:480
- Total: 1,275
Age 11-15 years
- Pembrokeshire U001: 165
- Pembrokeshire U002: 430
- Pembrokeshire U003: 385
- Total: 980
Age 16-18 years
- Pembrokeshire U001: 85
- Pembrokeshire U002: 155
- Pembrokeshire U003: 175
- Total: 415
Age 0-15 years
- Pembrokeshire U001: 575
- Pembrokeshire U002: 1625
- Pembrokeshire U003: 1355
- Total: 3,555
Age 0-18 years
- Pembrokeshire U001: 660
- Pembrokeshire U002: 1780
- Pembrokeshire U003: 1530
- Total: 3970
The data displayed above (see Appendix, Table 6 for further breakdown) indicates that Pembrokeshire U002 had the highest number of children living in all out-of-work benefit claimant households at 1,780 0–18-year-olds, whereas Pembrokeshire U001 had the fewest at 660. Although these numbers are absolute, they still serve as an indication of areas where there are a lot, or indeed few, children living in unemployed households.
Earnings and family incomes
Table 6 – Earnings and family incomes by place of residence (Source: ONS Nomis (opens in a new tab), 2021)
Full time workers Gross weekly pay
- Pembrokeshire £568.8
- Wales £570.6
- Great Britain £613.1
Male full time workers Gross weekly pay
- Pembrokeshire £593.6
- Wales £599.7
- Great Britain £655.5
Female full time workers Gross weekly pay
- Pembrokeshire £483.5
- Wales £528.3
- Great Britain £558.1
As indicated by the data in Table 6, gross weekly pay for full-time workers overall and male-full-time workers is roughly in-line with the Welsh average. However, there is a notable gap between female full-time-workers and both their male counterparts in Wales, but also fellow women across the rest of Wales. This suggests there are more women on low-incomes in Pembrokeshire and therefore having higher needs around affordable childcare.
Women in employment
Table 7 – Women in employment and other forms of economic activity (Source: ONS Nomis (opens in a new tab), 2020/21)
In employment
- Numbers: 25,800
- Pembrokeshire %: 69.8
- Wales %: 69.4
Employees
- Numbers: 22,600
- Pembrokeshire %: 62.1
- Wales %: 63.3
Self-employed
- Numbers: 3,100
- Pembrokeshire %: 7.7
- Wales %: 5.8
Economically active
- Numbers: 26,900
- Pembrokeshire %: 73.2
- Wales %: 72.3
Unemployed
- Numbers: 1,200
- Pembrokeshire %: 4.4
- Wales %: 4.0
Table 7 shows that the female employment rate is around the Welsh average; however, there is a marked difference in-terms of the percentage of women who are self-employed, compared to the rest of Wales.
Average household income
Table 8 (see Appendix, Table 7 for further breakdown) indicates that Pembrokeshire 012 had the lowest average gross annual household income by MSOA at £29,900, whereas Pembrokeshire 004 had the highest at £45,300. This represents a difference of £15,400 between the lowest and highest average gross yearly incomes per household in Pembrokeshire.
Pembrokeshire U001 was the upper output area with the highest average gross annual household income at £39,975, whilst Pembrokeshire U002 was the lowest at £36,300 per annum. Notably, the USOA with the lowest average household income is also the region with the most number of children in out-of-work benefit claimant households, whilst the USOA with the highest average household income is the region with the least number of children in this category
Table 8 - Average gross household income by MSOA and USOA (source: ONS (opens in a new tab) 2018)
Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: £37,706
Pembrokeshire U001
Pembrokeshire 001
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 37,900
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 39,975
Pembrokeshire 002
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 32,600
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 39,975
Pembrokeshire 003
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 44,100
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 39,975
Pembrokeshire 004
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 45,300
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 39,975
Pembrokeshire U002
Pembrokeshire 005
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 33,700
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 36,300
Pembrokeshire 006
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 38,400
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 36,300
Pembrokeshire 008
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 41,100
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 36,300
Pembrokeshire 009
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 42,300
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 36,300
Pembrokeshire 010
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 32,400
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 36,300
Pembrokeshire 012
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 29,900
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 36,300
Pembrokeshire 003
Pembrokeshire 007
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 43,800
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 37,600
Pembrokeshire 011
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 36,900
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 37,600
Pembrokeshire 013
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 30,200
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 37,600
Pembrokeshire 014
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 43,800
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 37,600
Pembrokeshire 015
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 33,300
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 37,600
Pembrokeshire 016
- Average gross annual household income £ by MSOA: 37,600
- Average gross annual household income £ by USOA: 37,600
Low-income households
As is shown in Chart 5 (for full breakdown see Appendix, Table 8), despite having a higher average gross household income, Pembrokeshire U001 has the highest percentage of children living in absolute low-income families in Pembrokeshire at 17.4%, with Pembrokeshire U002 having the lowest percentage at 14.76%. However, a ward in Pembrokeshire U002 has the highest rate of children in low-income families at 24.9%, and a ward in Pembrokeshire U001 has the joint lowest rate at 5.6%. This suggests that within wealthier regions, there are pockets of low-income areas and poverty, whilst in slightly poorer regions there are also clear pockets of affluence. It is important that these nuances are taken into account when
considering relative demand for childcare from families from low-income backgrounds, with a localised approach in place to meet specific needs of communities.
Chart 5 – Percentage of children (aged under 16) living in absolute low-income families (Source: Department for Work and Pensions (opens in a new tab) 2020)
Incidence of children with ALN
The Pembrokeshire school Census showed that there were 17,500 pupils attending schools in Pembrokeshire, of which 392 pupils attending schools had a Statement of Special Educational Needs – i.e., 2.24%. (Stats Wales (opens in a new tab), Stats Wales (opens in a new tab) & Explore Education Statistics). This was lower than the national average and in Carmarthenshire, but higher than Ceredigion:
- Neighbouring LA 1: Ceredigion = 1.1%
- Neighbouring LA 2: Carmarthenshire= 2.6%
- National Average = 3.7% (source: Gov.uk)
Table 9 – Benefit claimants for Disability Living Allowance aged 0-16 (Source: ONS Nomis (opens in a new tab), 2018)
- Aged under 5: 120
- Aged 5-11: 460
- Aged 11-16: 500
Table 9 shows the number of children currently claiming Disability Living Allowance across Pembrokeshire. As is shown in the table, claimant rates increase much more once children get to the age of 5 and above.
New forthcoming housing developments in Pembrokeshire
Appendix, Table 9, shows the number of approved housing developments supplied by the Council and indicates the number of new dwellings (7,048) set to be constructed and eventually occupied in each ward or settlement in Pembrokeshire This includes a number of major forthcoming housing and regeneration projects that will, in all probability, create ongoing phases of increased demand for funded entitlement/childcare places in the county – including 30 hours childcare offer places and others such as Flying Start.
Whilst there are significant variations in how much expected housing capacity there is likely to be in each area, all wards and settlements are projected to see an increase in the number of dwellings constructed in them by 2024. This could indicate that demand for childcare may increase in each area even if demand is likely to be far higher in some areas than others.
Welsh language
Table 10 – Ability to speak Welsh (Source: StatsWales (opens in a new tab), 2021)
- All aged 3 or over: 122,400
- Yes, can speak Welsh: 39,300
- No, cannot speak Welsh: 83,000
- Percentage of people who say they can speak Welsh: 32.1
Table 10 shows the total number of Welsh-speaking residents in Wales, with approximately 32.1% of people in Pembrokeshire stating that they can speak Welsh.
The Childcare Sufficiency Assessment and Local Wellbeing Needs Assessment
The Pembrokeshire Public Services Board undertook an updated Local Wellbeing Needs Assessment in 2021, which will be available on the Council’s website from May 2022. At the time the Local Wellbeing Needs Assessment was undertaken, children and families were still facing disruptions to access to routine services and schooling as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Due to this, the impact over the long term on children’s health and well-being is unknown at this time. It is also important to acknowledge that some indicators and research show disruptions, due to Covid-19 especially, which makes planning at a time of uncertainty particularly challenging.
From the research undertaken, there are a number of key findings which may impact the childcare sector in the short- and long-term. These include:
- Pembrokeshire has an ageing population, which may impact the demand for childcare
- Welsh language use is increasing in the county; this should be reflected in the availability of Welsh language childcare provision
- Covid-19 has impacted how many parents in the county work
- Accessible and affordable childcare can be a barrier to parents returning to work
The Pembrokeshire Public Services Board will monitor and review their analyses to ensure they reflect current and future trends as and when new or more reliable information becomes available. The findings from the Local Wellbeing Needs Assessment will inform the next Local Wellbeing Plan, to be completed by May 2023.
Key findings
- Falling population trends: the live birth rate has remained fairly flat in Pembrokeshire from 1,040 in 2018 to 1,052 in 2019, and 1,025 in 2020. In addition, the number of children aged 0-18 is expected to decline between 2023-2026 from 25,263 to 24,832. These indicators could suggest that demand for childcare may decline slightly in Pembrokeshire in the coming years. The most recent Nomis data shows that the population of 0-4 years olds resident in Pembrokeshire has fallen in recent years, as has the number for children in the same group across Wales and the wider United Kingdom. This suggests that the fall in number from children in this age group in Pembrokeshire is not uncommon, as a similar pattern is repeated on a nationwide level up to mid-2020
- Differences in age ranges: there are far more children aged 3-4 who are both resident in Pembrokeshire and accessing childcare in the county than children from other age groups, such as children aged 0-2. Demand for childcare in Pembrokeshire is therefore currently seen more in some age groups than others. Equally, some Upper Layer Super Output Areas (USOAs) (composed of Pembrokeshire’s 60 wards, see Appendix, Table 1), are larger than others in terms of the child population; i.e. Pembrokeshire U002 is larger than Pembrokeshire U001
- Economic disparity between areas: some areas have a far higher level of unemployment and children in all out-of-work claimant households than others. For example, in 2017 Pembrokeshire U002 recorded as many as 1,780 0-18 year olds in its region who were living in all out-of-work claimant households, whereas Pembrokeshire U001 recorded only 660
- Migration trends: both the inflow and outflow level of international migration has remained steady in Pembrokeshire between 2013-2020, whilst the same is evident in the inflow level of internal migration during the same period. The only migration trend that has decreased is the outflow of internal migration, which has fallen from 3,629 to 2,859 between 2013-2020. Overall, these trends could suggest that demand for childcare may increase in the short-term as a result of migration
Number of Additional Learning Needs (ALN) pupils: Pembrokeshire was found to have a higher number of pupils with a statement of Special Educational Needs, than the neighbouring county of Ceredigion, but lower than Carmarthenshire. Overall, 2.24% of Pembrokeshire pupils have statemented ALN.